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Reading this run

Run a simulation to generate the analysis.

Run a simulation to see the same attack replayed with the allocation flipped.

Why allocation is the whole game

Fixed defences are valuable when target value is concentrated: the battery sits on the thing that matters and every interceptor defends it. But as cheap long-range precision strike makes more targets worth attacking, the defender's value spreads out — and a fixed battery defending the wrong town contributes nothing. Defence must become more mobile, more networked, and able to concentrate against the main attack faster than the attacker can shift it.

The sliders explore that trade directly. Push target value entropy up and watch fixed allocations strand interceptors on low-value real estate. Push attacker concentration up and watch a dispersed mobile force arrive late to a massed raid. The warning-range multiplier is the hinge between the two: mobility is only worth what your sensors give it time to do.

Abstract model — no real systems, weapons, performance figures, or countries are modelled. Settlement names, country shape, and road network are procedurally generated per seed. Headless engine: every run, plus the flipped-allocation counterfactual, is simulated in full before the first frame is drawn.